China's Steel Pipe Conquers The Deep Sea

In late February, all 1, 100 tons of deep-water steel catenary risers of Chat City Changshengda Steel Pipe will be covered and will be installed under the sea. The indicators of this batch of products have passed the inspection of professional institutions at home and abroad, which marks that we have overcome the technical problems of "stuck neck" in the national key areas and set up a milestone of localization of deep-sea oil and gas "throat road" steel pipe. It is reported that this batch of pipes is the first batch of domestic large-caliber deepwater seamless risers in China, which is applied to China's first self-operated deepwater gas field. The picture shows CNOOC offshore production platform.

Seamless pipe market operation outlook in 2024

1. From a macro perspective, regarding the macro policy ideas for 2024, the recent Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools.

The IMF and Goldman Sachs forecasts China's economy at 4. 6% and 4. 8%, respectively. In 2024, insufficient demand is still a constraint, investment growth is limited, infrastructure, real estate and industrial investment growth is slow, private investment needs incentives, and the traditional market demand in Europe and the United States is not strong.

Monetary policy is expected to exert moderate force to promote a moderate price level, and there is still room for domestic RRR cuts in the later stage. Goldman Sachs forecasts three RRR cuts and one interest rate cut, which actually means that China's monetary policy is generally aggressive and similar to 2023. The Fed has signaled three possible rate cuts in 2024; In terms of later risks, the Central Economic Work Conference said that the future real estate risks, local debt risks and risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions need to be paid attention to and effectively resolved. Traditional manufacturing risks are also potentially increasing.

2. From the supply side, the seamless pipe production capacity under 2024 continues to increase due to the existence of new entrants, but with some production lines that may exit or stop production, the production capacity or increase is limited; As the overall competition in the seamless pipe market will continue to intensify, the capacity utilization rate in the second half of the year may decline slightly, and the overall output may have a certain downward trend;

3. From the demand side, overseas seamless pipe demand (can become the main) affected by many, or a certain degree of "cooling", domestic demand performance in the first quarter is basically flat, the second quarter demand recovery or accompanied by a certain resistance, the second half of the overall demand is expected to improve marginal, but seamless pipe overall demand performance change or little.

4. From the perspective of raw materials, the difference is more obvious in the aspect of tube billet, and the profit of billet rolling enterprises is maintained at a low level for a long time due to the intensified competitive pressure; Long and short process enterprises or short-term low after a rebound trend.